Flight International 2021 11.pdf

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FlightGlobal.com
November 2021
China
powers up
at Zhuhai
Big time
Why Emirates has kept faith in superjumbo
p32
Plus: What to expect from Dubai spectacular
p50
9
£4.99
770015 371327
Fresh start
Rolls-Royce
wins B-52
engine fight
p35
Class act
Gulfstream
launches
new models
p26
1 1
Comment
Costing the earth?
Commercial aviation is promising
to re-invent itself as a less-polluting
industry, with 2050 as a goal to reach
net-zero carbon. But no-one has
worked out who picks up the tab
T
he current narrative runs like
this: shaken to its core by the
damage wrought by coro-
navirus travel bans, the
commercial aviation industry is
emerging from this once-in-
a-lifetime shock with a more
sober, reflective and even
responsible mindset.
Rather
than
simply
returning to the pre-
Covid-19 status quo, the
industry instead intends
to make a concrete contri-
bution to reducing green-
house gas emissions.
In the short term, that
will mean expanded uptake
of sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF), while in the future new
propulsion technologies will
come to the fore.
With aerospace development
timelines being what they are,
work has now begun in order that
a zero-emission narrowbody pas-
senger aircraft can enter service by
the middle of next decade.
Hitting milestones
Under this scenario, a series of
milestones are crossed off with-
out a hitch: tick, tick, tick. For the
aircraft and engine manufactur-
ers, a new fuel type – probably
hydrogen – is selected by around
2025; around two years later a pro-
gramme is launched; and another
seven years down the line, the new
type enters service.
Airlines, meanwhile, as part of
their commitment to hit net-zero
by 2050, successfully abate the
modest total of 21.2 gigatons of
carbon despite carrying more
passengers each year than they
ever have before.
SAF production also rises un-
hindered: growing from 2% of the
industry’s total requirement in
2025 to 65% by 2050. Plot that
believes that “provided govern-
ments and the whole industry work
together and hold each other ac-
countable for delivery” then the
2050 goal can achieved.
The elephant in the room, how-
ever, is money. SAF is pricey – pres-
ently costing three to four times as
much as jet fuel – and produced
in tiny quantities. New propulsion
systems and next-generation air-
frame development will require
billions of dollars – trillions, maybe
– in investment, and the airport in-
frastructure changes will also have
to be paid for by someone.
Money matters
As ever, problems can be solved
if enough money is thrown
at them, but the question
is where that funding will
come from.
Airlines are still licking
their wounds from the
pandemic-driven down-
turn; IATA says the in-
dustry as a whole will not
be back in the black until
2023 at the earliest. Air-
framers and their suppli-
ers are also still in recovery
mode. Still, they appear in
robust health compared with
governments wrestling with
cratered public finances.
And that is not to mention the
travelling public. How willing are
passengers to pay more for an
airline ticket now if it helps to solve
problems in the future? Or, will
they simply travel by air less often,
thus exacerbating the problems
carriers face?
At present there are no easy
answers, but doing nothing is not
an option. What is clear is that one
part of the industry cannot shoul-
der all the burden; this must be a
collective effort.
But the industry should take
care not to let self-set milestones
become future environmental or
financial millstones.
◗
See p20
increase on a graph and you can
see the mountain the fuel produc-
ers need to scale.
In the background, all the compli-
cated infrastructural changes – fuel
storage and production, and mean-
ingful reform of air traffic manage-
ment – are delivered as promised.
Willie Walsh, IATA director
general, notes that aviation has
a “history of realising what was
thought to be impossible – and
doing so quickly”.
He acknowledges that the move
to net-zero is “challenging”, but
November 2021
Flight International
5
24K Production/Shutterstock
Rather than simply returning to
the pre-Covid-19 status quo, the
industry instead intends to make a
concrete contribution to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions

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