Flight International 2021-01.pdf

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FlightGlobal.com
January 2021
Forecasts
What the next
year could
bring
Return of
the Max
Can troubled twinjet regain momentum?
p6
Healthy appetite
Embraer bosses
still hungry for
sales success
p16
p26
How Udvar-Hazy
sees recovery
p32
Why Italian firms
are soaring
p64
9
£4.99
770015 371327
Splashing out
Paris embarks
on future carrier
design study
0 1
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Comment
Better days?
The pandemic had a devastating impact in the year just gone,
and 2021 might not have too much cheer held in store either
Long-haul slog
A
ttempting to predict the
future is a fool’s game, as
the emergence of a global
pandemic with staggering
health, social and economic con-
sequences illustrated during what
was a truly dreadful 2020.
Scroll back exactly one year, and
our main Comment article – de-
voted to Boeing’s woes with the
then-grounded 737 Max – used the
headline ‘Annus terribilis’. Little did
we know what was to come…
Indeed, an accompanying article
named ‘What a year’ noted falling
commercial orders, and offered
this sage wisdom: “Look back to
the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-
2009; in geo-economic terms it
does not get worse than that.”
The reality of the coronavirus
spread saw airlines around the
world ground entire fleets, and
some carriers shutter their op-
erations permanently. Long-haul
business disappeared almost en-
tirely, leading to Airbus A380s and
Boeing 747-400s heading for long-
term storage or the breakers’ yard.
We enter 2021 with recent
optimism about the availability of
newly approved vaccines and their
promise of a return to some sort
of “normal” threatened by a new
and more transmissible strain of
coronavirus. Earlier optimistic fore-
casts of air travel returning to per-
haps 75% of pre-pandemic levels
by mid-year now feel like fantasy,
as many wary travellers are likely
to be considering the health ben-
efits of planning a second summer
“staycation” in succession.
Covid-19 aside, the coming year
is already full of uncertainty. Can
a returning 737 Max earn the con-
fidence of regulators around the
globe, and – just as importantly –
of the travelling public? Will a sim-
mering trade war between China
and the USA erupt and restrict the
sale of Western jets to Beijing’s car-
riers? And what chaos might await
regarding the UK’s trade relations
with the EU, and Brexit’s implica-
tions for the nation’s airlines?
Add to this list the as-yet un-
known policy decisions of a new
US administration under Presi-
dent-elect Joe Biden, and what ac-
tions might be taken during Don-
ald Trump’s last days in office, and
2021 already feels fraught with risk.
Should this pessimism prove
ill-founded, there also is a very real
chance that more airlines in Europe
and further afield could go bust
in a post-pandemic age, once the
state aid that they currently rely on
is withdrawn.
But, while many of us have not
set foot inside an airliner since
the coronavirus changed our lives,
the crucial role of aviation dur-
ing the crisis has been clear for
all to see. From repatriating sick
and stranded passengers to flying
vitally needed supplies of personal
protective equipment boxed and
stacked on passenger seats under
cargo nets, and keeping global
trade flowing, aircraft have been
and remain vital assets.
And, if one small positive can be
taken from 2020’s turmoil, it is that
airlines and manufacturers alike –
partly thanks to the insistence of
governments – have finally taken
seriously the environmental agenda
and are actively pursuing new pro-
pulsion systems. We can expect hy-
brid-electric designs to make rapid
progress over the next few years,
while the industry pursues more
promising zero-emissions technol-
ogies such as hydrogen fuel for a
next generation of products – as
notably backed by Airbus in 2020.
In all likelihood, we should be
prepared for things to get worse
before a recovery comes. So,
charge your glasses – whether they
be half-full or half-empty – and let’s
go again, into the unknown.
◗
See p48
January 2021
Flight International
3
Santi Rodriguez/Shutterstock
In focus
Gol flies Max first
6
PIA ATR 42 crash report
8
Airbus touts hydrogen pods
10
eCaravan’s low-power landing
12
BEHA supplier selection
13
Embraer’s force Meijer
16
Ace flying high
20
Bell’s electric tail rotor
22
J-20: decade in the shadows
24
France launches carrier study
26
USAF trials network
27
Lilium puts down roots
28
Bern closes in on fighter
selection
30
Udvar-Hazy eyes rebound
32
Blaze involved Li-ion cells
36
Obituary: Chuck Yeager
38
Looking past the pandemic
40
F ightGlobal com
January 2021
Forecasts
12
£4 99
What the next
year could
bring
Andre Penner/AP/Shutterstock
Return of
the Max
Can troubled twinjet regain momentum?
p6
Hea thy appet te
Embraer bosses
st ll hungry for
sales success
p16
p26
How Udvar Hazy
sees recovery
p32
Why Italian firms
are soaring
p64
9
7001
Splashing out
Par s embarks
on future carr er
design study
371327
0 1
Regulars
Comment
3
Straight & Level
74
Letters
76
Jobs
81
Women in aviation
82
4
Flight International
January 2021
Contents
In depth
Back on course
46
Uplifted by the real prospect
of a Covid-19 vaccine becoming
widely available over the next
few months, our team turns
its sights on what 2021 might
hold in store
Team player
54
Electronic warfare specialist
Elettronica detects opportunity
Rocketing ambitions
68
Italy is determined to maintain
a central role in emerging fields
Blackshaping the future
72
Italian aircraft developer has
set itself a ‘challenging target’
for output of its flagship
programme in 2021, with high
hopes for sales in the ISR and
US recreational markets
45
64
18
48
January 2021
Flight International
5

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