Kraken's January 2021 Market Recap and Outlook.pdf

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January 2021 Market Recap & Outlook
A New Wave
ORDO AB CRYPTO
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January 2021 Takeaways
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A Santa Claus rally rolled over into Jan. and pushed BTC and many altcoins to an
all-time high;
while BTC rallied just
short of $42,000,
profit-taking sent BTC falling as much as -32% intramonth
before finishing Jan. up +14%.
While BTC posted a
fourth consecutive month of gains,
it vastly underperformed the altcoins (+64%). Of the large cap
altcoins,
LINK was the best performing
with a monthly return of
+101%
and a Sharpe ratio of
10.5. Decentralized
Finance (DeFi) was the best performing vertical
with a remarkable
+145%
return and a Sharpe ratio of
20.3.
For a third month, news headlines were littered with
outspoken support from well-established institutional investors
and corporates;
JPMorgan said BTC could surge to $146K, Bill Miller said corporate cash could fuel a BTC “torrent,”
BlackRock authorized two of its funds to invest in BTC, and Ray Dalio called BTC “one hell of an invention.”
BTC’s correlation with
risk-on assets was virtually unchanged MoM,
a potential cause for concern given the recent
influx of retail demand, further government stimulus, corporate sentiment sitting at a 16-year high, and stretched stock
market valuations.
BTC's bull market support, its
20-week exponential moving average
and
21-week simple moving average,
appears to
be approaching $30,000. Such suggests that the odds of falling below $30,000 are likely to diminish as Feb. concludes.
An
abnormal +18% monthly increase in subscribers to the r/Bitcoin subreddit
indicates that BTC is in the
hyper
growth
phase of bringing in a new cohort of adopters.
Aggressive BTC accumulation ($3B),
particularly following BTC’s blow-off top from $42,000, by whales indicates that if
demand can hold steady, outsized demand could drive price meaningfully higher.
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Bitcoin (BTC) - Monthly Recap
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BTC rallied +46% to an all-time high of $41,989 on Jan. 8, corrected -32% to $28,800 on Jan. 22, and finished the
month up +14% for a fourth consecutive month of positive returns.
Jan.’s unprecedented $288B in trading volume represented a whopping +128% increase MoM. On Jan. 11, roughly
$22B (7.7% of monthly volume) was traded amid a -21% intraday correction.
A move through $40,000 drove annualized volatility 43 percentage points higher to 106%, a level last seen on Apr.
12, 2020.
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sources:
Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics.io
notes:
trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance Jersey, Binance US, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex
annualized velocity = (monthly transaction volume (USD) ÷ average market capitalization) x 12
annualized volatility = 30 day std. deviation * SQRT(365)
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Ethereum (ETH) - Monthly Recap
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ETH’s +78% return represented its best monthly performance since Aug. 2017 and a rally to a near 3-year high of $1,475.
Monthly trading volume exploded +288% from Dec.; more than $12B was traded on Jan. 4 following a climb past $1,000
for the first time since Feb. 2, 2018.
The amount of ETH
stored on exchanges
dropped to its lowest level (22% of total supply) since Nov. 2018 while
realized
cap
increased +50% to a new all-time high beyond $70B. Reddit also
announced
that it is expanding its work with the
Ethereum Foundation to provide development resources to scaling tools.
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sources:
Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics.io, Reddit, Santiment
notes:
trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance Jersey, Binance US, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex
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Polkadot (DOT) - Monthly Recap
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DOT broke into the top 5 altcoins and momentarily overtook XRP as the third largest altcoin after climbing as much
as +135% intra-month. Despite retreating from an all-time high of $19.40, DOT returned a handsome +74% in Jan.
A +117% rally between Jan. 13 - 16 coincided with more than $5.5B traded, or 30% of the month’s total $18.6B.
On Jan. 12, Plasm Network
announced
that it became the first parachain on Polkadot’s Rococo test network. Two
days later, Polkadot became the biggest
staking network
in the world with nearly $7B in staked value.
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sources:
Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics.io, Polkadot, StakingRewards,
notes:
trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance Jersey, Binance US, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex
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